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Who wouldn’t want 4.5%? If you have an adjustable rate mortgage that has adjusted recently or is about to adjust, you probably have/had a 5 year ARM. Think back to 2004 and remember this conversation:
“Well, Mr/Mrs. Borrower, there are a few options to consider. The 30 year fixed rate option at 5.5%, which would make your monthly mortgage payment $1,703 principle and interest. Or, the 5/1 ARM option at 4.5%, which would make your monthly mortgage payment $1,520 per month — a savings of $183 per month, or $10,980 over the first 5 years!”
Most people with an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) remember this conversation well. For a large percentage of borrowers, the conversation continued one step further . . .
“Also, Mr/Mrs. Borrower, an interest-only option is also available to you. This program would allow you to decrease your monthly payment and cash-flow and maximize investments other places (increase your 401K, paydown other debts, etc, etc) and would give you an interest rate of 4.5% and a monthly interest only payment of $1,125 — a cash-flow savings of $578 per month!”
Most people remember this part of the conversation as well. It is the NEXT part that many have forgotten.
“The 5/1 interest-only ARM is a good program for people who are going to stay in their home for 5 to 6 six years. If you plan on staying in your home longer, you will want to refinance your mortgage . . . hopefully to a low fixed rate option.”
Now, please don’t read this and think that I am against adjustable rate mortgages. If anything, people who have had an adjustable rate mortgage for the past 5 years, made the best (and luckiest) decision they possibly could have made — even better than most could have ever imagined. They benefitted from an interest rate 1% point lower than the available fixed-rate, AND (by complete luck) now that the rate is about to adjust (at least for people with a 5/1 ARM), they are now able to refinance to the lowest fixed rate in history. Easy decision, right!?! Apparently not so much. And here is why.
Adjustable rate mortgages change based on two numbers: the margin and the index. The margin is a number determined and set at the time of closing and for most “A” borrowers, that number is equal to 2.25% to 2.5%. The index is a number that fluctuates based on the financial markets — for most borrowers, their ARM’s index is the 12 month LIBOR index. When you take those two numbers and add them together, that determines the new rate for the mortgage for the next 6 to 12 months (depending on your loan). There are caps on adjustment, for example, the loan may only be able to adjust up or down 2% per year and no more than 6% over the life of the loan.
If you have an ARM that has recently adjusted or is about to adjust, chances are your interest rate is going to go DOWN. That’s right. Because the Federal Funding Rate is so low, the LIBOR index is crazy-low as well. This week, the 12 month LIBOR was around 1%. So, for most borrowers with an adjustable rate mortgage 2.5% (margin) + 1% (index) = 3.5% interest rate fixed for either 6 or 12 months. Refinancing your mortgage today would cost you thousands of dollars and would give you a higher interest rate (around 4.75%) and a higher monthly payment. So what should you do? Wait it out for another year or two? Save your money and just let it adjust? Or refinance? Here is the short answer: you should refinance. Here is the slightly longer answer: seriously, you should refinance now. And the full complete long answer: if you are only going to be in your home for only 1-2 more years, you might consider keeping your current mortgage, otherwise, you should refinance now.
Here are a few things to consider . . .
- The 2 year average for the 12 month LIBOR index = 2.84. This average plus a margin of 2.5% = 5.34% (would be rounded down to 5.25%)
- The 3 year average for the 12 month LIBOR index = 3.63. This average plus a margin of 2.5% = 6.13% (would be rounded down to 6.125%)
- The LIBOR index tracks with the Federal Funding Rate, so when the Feds begin to raise rates, the LIBOR index will rise as well.
- In 2008 (before the Feds began to purchase mortgage backed securities to manipulate mortgage rates down), the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage = 5.90%. In 2007 = 6.01% and in 2006 = 6.09%.
So if those aren’t reasons enough to convince you that you need to refinance your mortgage (even though it probably means a higher monthly payment), here is some math to help. On a $300,000 mortgage, the savings between an adjusted rate of 3.5% (my best guess at your lower, newly adjusted rate) and a fixed rate of 4.75% is $217 per month = $2,604 for the year. Assuming in year 2, that your ARM adjusts up to 5.25% (2 year average from above), the difference between 5.25% and 4.75% is $92 per month = $1,104 for the year. Assuming in year 3, that your ARM adjusts up to 6.125% (3 year average from above), the difference between 6.125% and 4.75% is $258 per month = $3,096 for the year.
Still not sure whether or not you should refinance your adjustable rate mortgage to a higher rate and higher payment? Well, even though I can’t definitely prove to you that you should refinance (i.e. here is the monthly savings; here are the closing costs; here is when you will break-even on the expense of your closing costs), you’ll know the answer for sure in two to three years from now . . . my guess is that you’ll also know the approximate payment for a fixed rate mortgage at 6.5% . . . and you’ll wish you had a payment for a fixed rate mortgage at 4.75%.
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